GEOPOLITIES OF SOY COMMODITY IN BRAZIL AND IN THE WORLD IN THE 2006/2020 PERIOD
Keywords:
Geopolitics of Soybean, Commodities, Futures marketAbstract
The present study aimed to observe the geopolitical variables that influence the pricing process of soybean agricultural commodities, considering some academic research published recently. Brazil is a major producer and exporter of commodities, mainly agricultural, with 1/3 of its Gross Domestic Product coming from the agricultural sector, highlighting the importance of studying the agricultural sector. In this sense, understanding the factors that influence the price of agricultural commodities in the geopolitical perspective is of great importance for all those involved in this market, namely: investors, producers and the State. For the methodology, studies were used, with a sample of scientific articles published in journals in the area of agricultural economics and secondary data, which were compiled in Excel software. To compose this sample, we sought to identify which variables influence the pricing process of agricultural commodities soy. Finally, a descriptive analysis of the results was carried out, which showed that, for soybeans, the main geopolitical factors that influence pricing are: The China effect, production costs (linked to oil and ethanol prices), climatic factors and the use of derivatives such as, for example, futures contracts and inputs whose prices are pegged to the dollar.
References
AMIN, M.M.The Role of Speculative Activity in Determining International Cocoa Prices in the New York Market. Cambridge: Woodhead Publishing, CIRAD/ASKINDO, 1995.
CONAB – COMPANHIA NACIONAL DE ABASTECIMENTO. Séries históricas de produção de grãos. 2020. Disponível em: http://www.conab.gov.br. Acesso em: 20 jul. 2020.
COUTINHO FILHO, Nelson Rubens. A geopolítica do petróleo e a influência nos preços das principais commodities agrícolas brasileiras. 2018. 158f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018.
de Assis, R. J. S., & da Silva, O. F. A. (2020). A reprimarização no Brasil sob a ascensão da geopolítica chinesa no comércio exterior (2008 – 2018) / Reprimarization in Brazil under the rise of chinese geopolitics in foreign trade (2008 – 2018). Brazilian Journal of Development, 6(3), 12121–12139. https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv6n3-176.
FAMA, Eugene F. Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. In: Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association. 28., 1969, New York. The Journal of Finance, v. 25, n. 2, p. 383-417, dez. 1970. Disponível em: <http://efinance.org.cn/cn/fm/Efficient%20Capital%20Markets%20A%20Review%20of%20Theory%20and%20Empirical%20Work.pdf>. Acesso em: 20 dezembro 2021.
MENEZES, Igor D’Luca Ramos de. Revisão da literatura empírica acerca das variáveis que impactam a precificação de commodities agrícolas: soja, milho, café e boi gordo. 2015. 32 f., il. Trabalho de conclusão de curso (Bacharelado em Ciências Contábeis)—Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, 2015.
MENDES, J. T. G.; PADILHA, J, B. Agronegócio, uma abordagem econômica. São Paulo. Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007.
RIGHI, Marcelo Brutti; CERETTA, Paulo Sergio. Previsibilidade e eficiência no mercado agrícola. Ciência Rural, Santa Maria, v. 41, n. 10, set./out. 2011. Disponível em: <http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-84782011001000028>. Acesso em: 20 dezembro 2021.
ROMEU, Marina Campanelli. Análise dos impactos dos especuladores nos retornos dos preços futuros das principais commodities agrícolas exportadas pelo Brasil. 2014. 67 f. Dissertação (Mestrado) – Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo, São Paulo. 2014.
SANTOS, Angela Margarida Diel. A evolução dos preços agrícolas e as bolsas de mercadorias e futuros: um estudo para o mercado da soja em grão, farelo e óleo no Brasil (1995-2002). 2003. Dissertação – Programa de Pós-graduação em economia. UFRGS, Porto Alegre, 2003.
WAITE, W. C.; TRELOGAN, H. C. Agricultural market prices. 2. ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1951.
